Product Forecasting – An Analogy What is Product Forecasting: It is the science of predicting the degree of success a new product will enjoy in the marketplace. Forecasting is said to be the first and foremost step in the planning process. One of the requirements for effective long-term planning by managers is to assess the changes in technology and environmental conditions that could affect the firm. This is termed as environmental scanning which facilitates the firm to benchmark its performance as against the top industry standards. Technological forecasting involves anticipating development of new products and processes and the time taken for such kind of innovations to be accepted and absorbed in the market. External Environmental Scanning: Environmental forecasts focus on factors such as population growth, availability of resources, social and political trends that may affect the firm’s future. Business firms become more informative on, The percentage of market share for existing products of the firm Future demand for its product range Decline in sales proportions Consumer feedback about product performance Customer satisfaction Sales team performance level Pitfalls in marketing strategies Need for new product development Unidentified customer needs and so on  All predictive activity is subject to error, but technological and environmental forecasting is particularly different because they often involve assessing ideas and relationship that do not exist at the time the analysis is being performed. These forecasts are best suited for predicting performance a year or two in the future. Plan of Future Course of Action: Based on forecasting, the firm decides the future course of action. Sales forecasts help the firm to decide on the volume of production for the next few months and aid in aggregate capacity planning. Labor productivity is a crucial factor in determining the success of a business environment, especially a production environment. Manpower planning is purely based on production forecasts where in, the labor hour productivity is also taken into consideration. Forecasting Techniques: In the absence of empirical data, the forecasts must be based on expert opinions. Techniques like Delphi method can be used for this purpose. A group of experts is asked to assess a particular situation, presented with the judgments of others in the group, and then asked to reevaluate their individual positions based on what they have heard. The process continues until a consensus is arrived or until it is apparent that there will be no consensus. This helps the firm to consolidate its position with respect to specific problem situations. The Delphi method has been successfully used to forecast the nature and timing of technological change. Techniques like Delphi and Brain storming also help in the process of identification of bottlenecks, the current business trend, the firm’s future prospects, range of estimates for the desired breakthroughs etc. Although the pattern of a business cycle or a product cycle for the most part, follows a fairly predictable pattern, the firm cannot overlook probabilities, upon which the firm has to capitalize on. The firm has to become alert and employ some innovations at that point of time, when the market becomes saturated. Or else, the rate of growth declines and the firm has to decide whether to continue with the operations which calls for additional investment or close down the...

Types of Production Systems -I Continuous Production What is continuous production? The manufacture of products requiring the sequential performance of different processes on a series of multiple machines receiving the material for manufacture through a closed channel. For example, continuous production is generally conducted in the paper and chemical business. Characteristics 1. Dedicated plant and equipment with zero flexibility. 2. Material handling is fully automated. 3. Process follows a fixed sequence of operations. 4. Component materials cannot be readily identified with final product. 5. Planning and scheduling is a routine action. Technical Web Testing 101- Introducing the tools, techniques and thought processes that help you become more technical, and test more thoroughly. Benefits 1. Standardisation of product and process sequence. 2. Higher rate of production with decreased cycle time. 3. Higher capacity utilisation due to line balancing. 4. Manpower is not required for material handling as it is completely automatic. 5. Person with limited skills can be used on the production line. 6. Unit cost is lower due to high volume of production. Limitations 1. Flexibility to accommodate and process number of products does not exist. 2. Very high investment for setting flow lines. 3. Product differentiation is limited. Mass Production What is mass production? The manufacture of a product on a large scale. The mass production of items is often done by using an assembly line, or another efficient means of production. The process is often carefully determined, to try to produce the greatest quantity of items while using the fewest resources (such as labor and/or time). Mass production has become popular since the assembly line became prominent in the 1900s, although the process embodies principles of efficiency that have been around much longer. Characteristics: 1. Standardisation of product and process sequence. 2. Dedicated special purpose machines having higher production capacities and output rates. 3. Large volume of products. 4. Shorter cycle time of production. 5. Lower in process inventory. 6. Perfectly balanced production lines. 7. Flow of materials, components and parts is continuous and without any back tracking. 8. Production planning and control is easy. 9. Material handling can be completely automatic. Benefits 1. Higher rate of production with reduced cycle time. 2. Higher capacity utilisation due to line balancing. 3. Less skilled operators are required. 4. Low process inventory. 5. Manufacturing cost per unit is low. Limitations Following are the limitations of Mass Production: 1. Breakdown of one machine will stop an entire production line. 2. Line layout needs major change with the changes in the product design. 3. High investment in production facilities. 4. The cycle time is determined by the slowest...